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The Punting Baron

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Free horse racing tips and previews for Saturday 22 July.

 

Select Event

Melbourne (Caulfield)

29/07/2017

Sydney (Rosehill)

29/07/2017

Brisbane (Doomben)

29/07/2017

 


Melbourne (Caulfield)

Race 4 – 1.40pm

Suggested: - Danuki (No.2), Kabrocco (No.4) & Written Era (No.11)

Dangers: - Oberland (No.1), Wind Force (No.10) & Saint Valorem (No.13)

Racing in Melbourne is back at Caulfield this Saturday for the final meet of the racing season. The good news about that; is that it means spring isn’t too far away. Given my form in July, I personally won’t be too sad to see the back of this month from a punting point of view. It has been a pretty tough month, but let’s hope we can end it on a high on Saturday. It look a good meeting at Caulfield with the rail in the true position and the track currently rated as a Good 4. There is the chance of rain late on Thursday into Friday and them some rain expected again on Saturday so I think there is a chance that we will get into the soft range but as we know Caulfield copes with rain so well and drains so effectively that I don’t think the track will be significantly affected.

It is a bit of a later start for me at Caulfield, I am not kicking off until race four which is for the sprinters over the 1100m. This race sums up the day at Caulfield a little bit. It is a big field and there look to be a whole host of chances. It is a wide open race. I ended up settling on Danuki first up from a spell. We haven’t seen him since February but I was really taken with his most recent jump out here at Caulfield. I have to say that is pretty much what I am basing my bet off here. He took on Lankan Rupee in that jump out and was able to lead him comfortably and then when that horse was put under pressure this horse seemed to just stride away and extend under his own steam. He won the jump out quite comfortably and looked to have plenty more to give.

It was an indication for mine that the horse has come back well and this is certainly a winnable assignment first up. His 1100m record is very good, he has raced well fresh in the past and from a middle gate for Michael Walker he is going to get up on speed and be in the firing line all the way. If he can run up to the jump out then I think he can win here and I am happy to be with him.

Written Era is a really interesting runner here for mine. This is a mare that I have quite a bit of time for. I had a really good run backing her in the spring of last year when she won her maiden and then went on to win three of her four subsequent starts. Then last preparation she stepped up in class and ran quite well here at Caulfield in a couple of races behind Silent Sedition. The first of those over 1200m which was two starts back she hit the line well before running last behind Silent Sedition over 1400m at her most recent start in February. That was probably one of the best lasts you will ever see. She just never got a crack at them and was immediately spelled post that run.

We don’t have the knowledge of a trial leading into this race which is unfortunate but I am happy to take the punt. If she has improved again in the break then this is a race well within her grasp. She seems to be a mare that is really on the up and continuing to improve. She draws out for Damian Lane but given her get back and run on pattern that doesn’t bother me too much. I think she has a touch of class about her and am certainly keen to be in her corner here first up.

The other horse I want to have something on is Kabrocco. Gee, I feel for you if you backed this horse last start. Plenty did too as he was backed from $2.25 into $1.85 and he just had no luck at all. He ended up three back on the inside and just never really got a clear crack at them. He got clear very late and went through the line pretty strongly but effectively he barely had a run. He gets a senior jockey in Stackhouse go on here and from gate three he should get a lovely smother in behind the speed. From there I think he just needs to ensure he stays in touch and then if he receives a touch of luck he can be figuring very prominently in the finish. I am happy to have him in my corner in what is a wide open race.

Betting Strategy: - I will have $30 the win on Danuki here expecting him to hopefully start around the $6-7 mark. I will also have $20 the win on both Kabrocco and Written Era hoping that both of them start around $8+!

Race Outlay: - $70

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Sydney (Rosehill)

Race 1 – 11.40am

Suggested: - D’argento (No.4), Almighty (No.5) & All Too Soon (No.8)

Dangers: - Condor (No.2) & Hostwin Meraki (No.3)

Racing in Sydney returns to Rosehill this Saturday and Sydney is currently in the midst of some really good weather. As a result we are again going to be racing on a good track on Saturday afternoon. The rail moves back to the true position so we really should just have a perfect surface for racing. With the rail in the true position Rosehill can typically play to those horses just coming a couple of horses off the fence but I wouldn’t be placing too much emphasis on to any bias when doing your form for this meeting. Unlike Caulfield, we are going to kick the day off nice and early here at Rosehill.

I am kicking off in the first which is a two year old race over the 1500m. It is always an intriguing time of year with these two year olds as they begin to step up over these longer trips. The market has certainly identified D’argento as the horse to beat in this race and it is easy to see why. He is a colt by So You Think who was very impressive in winning on debut at Newcastle. He got back off the speed there and made up a lot of ground in the straight to run down a well regarded Snowden debutante in Smartedge. They beat the others quite comfortably and ran quicker time than the other 1200m race on the day.

The question mark for me is the fact that he has to jump from 1200m to 1500m at his second start but the way in which he won on debut probably eliminates a bit of that doubt. He also has the services of Hugh Bowman on board which is something that certainly can’t be sneezed at right now. He draws gate five and over 1500m and the slightly slower tempo early he can probably take up a position a little closer to the speed. If that is the case he clearly has some talent and a big finish on him and if that is up his sleeve and he is within striking distance in the straight he is going to take some holding out so keen to be in his corner. I think if he is to be beaten it might be by a couple of horses that have had a bit of experience up in this distance range.

Almighty from the Snowden yard ran well on debut at Newcastle behind the smart Siege Of Quebec when he hit the line hard from the back of the field. Last start he stepped up to the 1400m and was sent out an odds on favourite but not a lot went right for him. He was caught wide and working without cover for most of the race just off the speed and was really out in no man’s land. He hit the front in the straight but was left a sitting shot really for Kailenny to swoop over the top. I think today from gate three he will get a good run right in behind the speed and that should see him strong at the end of the 1500m so happy to be saving on him.

All Too Soon is a filly that has had a run over this trip. Her last start run at Canterbury was on a soft track over the 1550m. She was strong through the line there after making the home turn a bit awkwardly and was really going through the line hard. She might even be looking for further. I just think the fact that she is proven to run the trip out here and the fact she has had the run over this trip under her belt that she could be dangerous here. I am not sure she has the talent of a couple of the other runners but she might be more equipped to run the race out strongly and for that reason I am going to keep her on side here.

Betting Strategy: - I will have $60 the win on D’argento here and save with $15 the win on Almighty and All Too Soon!

Race Outlay: - $90             

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Brisbane (Doomben)

Race 3 – 12.22pm

Suggested: - Misery (No.1), Nardoo (No.8) & Siliqua (No.15)

Dangers: - Live Fast (No.4) & Wigglesworth (No.6)

Racing in Brisbane is again at Doomben this Saturday and it would appear that we can expect to see plenty more of Doomben over the next six to nine months with news this week that Eagle Farm will be out of action until at least March and probably longer. It means Doomben will be seeing a lot of action as the main and only racetrack in Brisbane in use for the next period of time. What is winter in Brisbane? It would appear it doesn’t exist. It has been sunny and warm pretty much every day and as a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday with the rail out two metres which should provide us with a prefect track.

I am kicking the day off in the third race of the day which is over the 1050m for the sprinters. There look to be plenty of chances here and it is a wide open race. Misery drops back to a Benchmark 75 race here after taking on a Benchmark 90 race at his most recent start and prior to that had competed in two listed races prior to that. He struggled in those races, but gee, this looks a big drop back in class for him. It is certainly his most winnable race since early in his campaign and he looks set to run really well. His short course record is obviously very good and most importantly here he draws perfectly in gate three to get a lovely run just in behind the speed. He is up in the weights but that is surely offset by the drop back in class and I feel if he gets a touch of luck from that inside draw he should be right in the finish here and I am keen to be with him.

Nardoo is an interesting runner here. This galloper created a big impression early in her career when winning a Doomben maiden by over six lengths and it was thought we had a pretty special talent to look at. Her career probably hasn’t hit the heights most would have thought since that big debut run, but she does come here in very good form. Her first two runs this time in she finished down the track at Rosehill and Randwick before being freshened up and heading to Grafton for their carnival. At her first run off that freshen up she led all the way in a handy race over the 1100m to get the prize. She then backed up a week later in a race on Cup Day. By this stage of the carnival the track was really starting to play towards horses getting to the middle of the track and off the fence.

She sat outside the leader Termele in that race over 1200m and they went very quickly which set the race up for Havasay to swoop down the middle over the top of them. She was clearly the best of the on pace runners in that race and the trifecta spots were pretty much filled by horses off the speed. Her effort to run fourth I thought was really good. She should come into a middle gate here after scratchings and I feel if she can push forward and get into a good spot on speed she can be pretty strong at the end of 1050m here dropping back from 1200m. Around the $13 mark in early markets I am happy to be having something on her here.

Siliqua is the other horse in the race I am going to have something on. He has had two runs back this time in over 1200m and found the line fairly. I think he looks better suited here back over the 1050. He has the blinkers back on and I think from an inside to middle gate he can be ridden with a nice cold smother and have one crack at them late in the race. If that is the case he does have a booming finish up his sleeve on his day and at double figure odds I am happy to be having something on him here.

Betting Strategy: - I will have $40 the win on Misery here, $15 the win on Nardoo locking in the $14 with LuxBet and $10 the win on Siliqua!

Race Outlay: - $65 

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Punting Baron Stats

April 2017 Results

52% Strike Rate
32 Bets Won
27 Bets Placed
$6.73 Avg. Bet Return

See Full Results

The Punting Baron
@subastral safe travels mate!
The Punting Baron
Subscribers, all previews for Saturday now posted! Caulfield, Rosehill & Doomben! Time to open the FroffGates! 🍻🍺🍻🍺 https://t.co/Ugg1tZAW8R
The Punting Baron
Subscribers, Saturday preview for Caulfield & Rosehill now posted as I look to end this recent Winter Form Slump! πŸ™ https://t.co/Ugg1tZAW8R
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